城乡结合部道路交叉口多目标信号配时优化模型

随着我国城镇化进程的加快,城乡结合部道路交通问题日益显著。为提高城乡结合部道路交叉口的交通运行效率、环境效益和交通安全,提出信号配时多目标优化方法,综合考虑延误、通行能力、停车次数、车辆尾气排放等因素构建模型,运用遗传算法进行求解。以某典型交叉口为例进行分析,给出改进设计方案并进行交通仿真评价。研究结果表明,通过多目标信号配时优化可以缓解城乡结合部道路交叉口交通拥堵和污染物排放的问题,具有较好的交通信号控制效果。     

微波接力组网的节点再优化研究

为进一步完善常规方法构建的微波接力网组网拓扑,提出了一种基于最优链路集的网络节点再优化方法。该方法综合考虑节点吸引系数、链路衰落概率、节点通信冗余等因素,借助网络拓扑优化的思想,采用遗传算法构造了微波接力网的最优链路集;以节点在该集合中的度为依据,通过对节点的合理排序,以部分用户节点代替非必要的干线节点,完善了组网拓扑。在修改链路和节点价值集后,该方法还可解决其他网络干线、中继节点的选择问题。     

基于改进智能水滴算法的动态车辆配送路径优化

针对当前车辆配送过程中存在的配送路径不合理、配送效率低和需求不确定性等问题,提出一种基于改进智能水滴算法的动态车辆配送路径优化方法。构建软时间窗惩罚函数,考虑顾客对配送时间的要求,建立顾客满意度函数。综合车辆配送过程的车速、货损成本、惩罚成本、顾客满意度等特征,建立车辆路径优化模型。采用智能水滴算法对车辆路径优化模型进行求解,使用灰狼优化算法改善智能水滴算法的搜索能力,获取最优路径。实验结果表明该方法能够提供实时优化的路径,减少调配成本。     

实现船舶稳性的多油舱自适应调度算法及仿真

针对油舱对船舶浮态与稳性的影响，研究了保持船舶稳性的多油舱自适应调度控制算法，并用WinCC (Windows Control Center)组态软件编写了船舶自动浮态调整仿真系统。在系统架构上，采用布尔逻辑表构建了油舱、泵、管路之间的连通关系，并根据浮态方程计算出舱群之间的调驳油量，再根据多变量多约束的自适应优化调度算法实现了油舱驳油过程中浮态的平衡。仿真结果表明调度算法可以对船舶的浮态进行有效调整，并保持船舶稳性，避免了由油舱油量分布不均给船舶带来的不利影响，保障了航行安全。     

基于模型的多目标优化问题方法研究

基于模型的多目标优化方法目的是创新一种通过黑箱评估的多目标函数优化算法,该算法从解空间上的混合分布中迭代生成候选解,并根据采样解的控制数来更新混合分布,求解过程的搜索偏向于Pareto最优解的集合。算法在解空间上寻找混合分布,使得混合分布的每个分量都是以帕累托最优解为中心的简并分布,并且每个预计的Pareto最优解都通过一个阈值距离均匀地分布在Pareto最优解集上,实验通过几个基准函数和方法证明了该算法的性能。     

基于共识粒子群的全局优化求解方法

针对粒子群优化(PSO, particle swarm optimization)和高效全局优化(EGO, efficient global optimization)两种算法的特点,提出一种共识粒子群和局部代理模型协同的全局黑箱优化算法(CPSO-LSM, consensus particle swarm optimization and local surrogate model)。该算法固定PSO算法周期对粒子进行分群并在粒子达成共识后停止,将每群粒子周围的优质子区域输出作为代理模型的建模区域,通过比较各区域最优值获得高质量最优解甚至全局最优解。不仅避免了PSO冗长的计算过程、提高了建立代理模型的速度和精度还可以避免陷入局部最优。通过对比其他算法在标准测试函数的仿真结果,CPSO-LSM具有较好的收敛速度和求解精度。     

考虑动态多时段借还车需求的城市自行车租赁系统规划模型

建立了一个自行车租赁系统规划模型。该模型考虑一天中动态的自行车借还车需求及租赁分区自行车和空闲停车位数量的动态变化，通过优化各租赁分区的自行车停车桩(或对共享单车为停车位)数量，以及运营时段初始各小区分配的自行车数量，在保证所有的自行车借还车需求均能得到满足的基础上，最小化总的投资建设成本。模型为一个大型整数线性规划问题，通过LINGO软件中内置的分支定界算法，可快速求得全局最优解。通过算例对该模型进行了验证。     

The ecological rationality of explanatory reasoning

There is growing evidence that explanatory considerations influence how people change their degrees of belief in light of new information. Recent studies indicate that this influence is systematic and may result from people’s following a probabilistic update rule. While formally very similar to Bayes’ rule, the rule or rules people appear to follow are different from, and inconsistent with, that better-known update rule. This raises the question of the normative status of those updating procedures. Is the role explanation plays in people’s updating their degrees of belief a bias? Or are people right to update on the basis of explanatory considerations, in that this offers benefits that could not be had otherwise? Various philosophers have argued that any reasoning at deviance with Bayesian principles is to be rejected, and so explanatory reasoning, insofar as it deviates from Bayes’ rule, can only be fallacious. We challenge this claim by showing how the kind of explanation-based update rules to which people seem to adhere make it easier to strike the best balance between being fast learners and being accurate learners. Borrowing from the literature on ecological rationality, we argue that what counts as the best balance is intrinsically context-sensitive, and that a main advantage of explanatory update rules is that, unlike Bayes’ rule, they have an adjustable parameter which can be fine-tuned per context. The main methodology to be used is agent-based optimization, which also allows us to take an evolutionary perspective on explanatory reasoning.     

Forecasting of electricity price through a functional prediction of sale and purchase curves

This work proposes a new approach for the prediction of the electricity price based on forecasting aggregated purchase and sale curves. The basic idea is to model the hourly purchase and the sale curves, to predict them and to find the intersection of the predicted curves in order to obtain the predicted equilibrium market price and volume. Modeling and forecasting of purchase and sale curves is performed by means of functional data analysis methods. More specifically, parametric (FAR) and nonparametric (NPFAR) functional autoregressive models are considered and compared to some benchmarks. An appealing feature of the functional approach is that, unlike other methods, it provides insights into the sale and purchase mechanism connected with the price and demand formation process and can therefore be used for the optimization of bidding strategies. An application to the Italian electricity market (IPEX) is also provided, showing that NPFAR models lead to a statistically significant improvement in the forecasting accuracy.     

不同提取方法对沉香精油制备的影响

以西双版纳州蚂蚁结香的沉香木为原料,通过水浴回流提取法、索氏提取法、超声辅助萃取法和微波辅助萃取法制备沉香精油,采用气相色谱-质谱联用法(GC-MS)分析精油成分,根据精油得率、成分种类和组成、特征性组分质量浓度比较4种提取方法对沉香精油制备的影响.结果表明, 4种提取方法制备的精油成分组成相似,主要有倍半萜类、芳香族类、色酮类和脂肪酸类,但质量浓度存在较明显的差异;微波辅助萃取法制备沉香精油的提取率最高、物质种类最多,分别为1.32%和70种,其中反映沉香精油品质的倍半萜类物质和芳香族类物质的种类和质量浓度都高于其他3种方法,分别为19种、 20种和22.29%,12.36%,且脂肪酸类物质的质量浓度最低,为24.30%;超声辅助萃取法所得精油中色酮类物质质量浓度最高,为38.62%,微波辅助萃取法次之,为36.52%;仅有微波辅助萃取法得到的精油中6种特征性物质均有检出,其中沉香螺醇、愈创木醇、苍术醇、(+)-香橙烯、γ-桉叶醇的质量浓度最高,分别为1.53%,1.73%,0.19%,1.47%和1.69%.综上所述,微波辅助萃取法是4种方法中最优的沉香精油提取方法,具有提取率高、精油品质佳的特点.